Internal Fears and Quiet Diplomacy Signal Iranian Vulnerability Ahead of Nuclear Talks

Iran’s leadership is increasingly worried that renewed unrest, combined with external pressure, could threaten the survival of the Islamic Republic, even as Tehran publicly projects defiance and issues threats ahead of renewed nuclear talks, according to reporting by Reuters and The New York Times.

Senior Iranian officials have warned Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that public anger over the regime’s violent suppression of protests has reached a point where fear no longer restrains the population, Reuters reported. Officials cautioned that renewed external pressure, including a limited U.S. strike, could drive people back onto the streets and potentially trigger a collapse of the ruling system.

At the same time, quiet diplomatic signals suggest Tehran may be more vulnerable than its public rhetoric implies. According to Iranian and U.S. officials cited by The New York Times, Iran has privately suggested it might discontinue or temporarily suspend parts of its nuclear program as a major gesture toward the United States. Senior officials from both sides are expected to convene in Istanbul on Friday in an effort to de-escalate the crisis.

The concerns come after a bloody suppression of anti-government protests since they started, which rights groups say left thousands of people killed. Iranian authorities blamed the violence on “armed terrorists” linked to Israel and the United States. Officials privately warned that if unrest resumes under foreign pressure, demonstrators would be bolder and the regime would respond with even harsher measures, raising fears of widespread bloodshed.

Opposition figures who were once part of Iran’s political establishment have also warned that the regime is facing a legitimacy crisis. Former prime minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi, a central figure of the Islamic Republic before falling out with the leadership, has been under house arrest without trial since 2011. In a statement published by a pro-reform website, he said the “wall of fear has collapsed” and declared, “Enough is enough. The game is over,” describing the recent unrest as a rejection of the system itself rather than a passing protest wave.

These internal anxieties stand in sharp contrast to Tehran’s public posture. Ali Shamkhani, a senior adviser to Khamenei, issued a series of defiant statements yesterday rejecting key U.S. demands and warning of regional escalation. He said Iran would not transfer its stockpile of enriched uranium abroad and would not abandon uranium enrichment, though it could reduce enrichment levels from 60% to 20% “at a price.” He insisted that any negotiations must be limited strictly to the nuclear issue and said talks would only proceed if threats stopped and “unreasonable demands” were dropped.

Shamkhani also warned that any U.S. attack on Iran would automatically implicate Israel, saying Iran would respond immediately. When asked directly whether Iran would strike Israel in such a scenario, he replied, “Definitely.” He said the restraint shown in the previous conflict would not be repeated and cautioned that even limited aggression could spiral into a much larger crisis.

U.S. President Donald Trump has escalated pressure on Tehran as preparations for renewed talks continue, warning that the United States is prepared to use force if diplomacy fails. Trump reiterated yesterday that a large fleet of U.S. military vessels was heading toward Iran, describing the deployment as a significant show of strength as tensions between the two countries remain high. “We have ships heading to Iran right now, big ones, the biggest and the best, and we have talks going on with Iran and we’ll see how it all works out,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office.

Trump said he would prefer a negotiated agreement but warned that failure to reach one would likely have serious consequences. “If we can work something out, that would be great and if we can’t, probably bad things would happen,” he said, adding, “I’d like to see a deal negotiated. I don’t know that that’s going to happen.” His remarks came as U.S. warships moved into position and senior U.S. and Iranian officials prepared for talks in Istanbul aimed at reviving diplomacy over Iran’s nuclear program.

Analysts say that while Iran’s streets are quiet for now, deep-seated grievances have not disappeared. With talks approaching under the shadow of military pressure and internal unrest, Iranian leaders appear caught between projecting strength abroad and managing growing vulnerability at home.