How Will the Jewish Community Evolve by 2050? Insights from a Leading Demographer

How many Jews are there in the world? How many have we lost to assimilation? And what will our population look like in decades to come? Professor Sergio Della Pergola, an Israeli statistician and demographer specializing in Jewish community demographics worldwide, offers a revealing interview brimming with insights.

Born in 1942 in a picturesque Italian town near Milan, Della Pergola emerged into a world where the Jewish population was direly shrinking during the Holocaust’s horrific years. His homeland, controlled by Mussolini, a Hitler ally, meant constant fear. "Fear was always in the air," he recalls, adding how his parents lost their jobs due to racial laws and struggled for survival. Eventually, they escaped to neutral Switzerland, aided by their proximity to its border.

"It was during Chanukah," Della Pergola reminisces from his home in Jerusalem. He describes their perilous escape across frigid mountains on the Italian-Swiss border, aided by righteous gentiles later recognized by Yad Vashem. They narrowly escaped being sent back to certain death when Swiss soldiers granted them entry, thanks to the Christian observance of their own holiday.

The family lived under remarkable divine protection throughout these dark times, receed support from Swiss government as refugees. Over the years, Della Pergola’s academic pursuits flourished, shaping him into the foremost authority on Jewish demographics. In 1966, after completing his political science master's in Italy, he made *aliyah*, earning his doctorate from the Hebrew University by 1973.

His acclaimed research delves into Jewish population history, migration patterns, and projections in Israel and beyond. A prolific author, Della Pergola’s work includes over 30 books and more than 100 articles, sharing his global insights gathered from extensive travels.

Della Pergola challenges assumptions on Jewish assimilation post-Holocaust, estimating around 600,000 lost to assimilation—contrary to claims of millions. This ongoing assimilation, particularly outside Orthodox communities, significantly impacts future Jewish populations, especially in the U.S.

In the U.S., Orthodox Jews remain a smaller, yet growing segment due to high birth rates and strong Jewish education. Conversely, higher assimilation rates beset Reform and Conservative communities, eroding numbers. Della Pergola stresses that while Orthodox and some non-affiliated Jews maintain robust demographics, overall American Jewish populations may dwindle in the coming decades. Yet there's optimism, particularly in Israel, where Jewish and Orthodox populations grow and thrive.

Looking forward, though U.S. Jews may decrease, Orthodox communities should notably expand. By 2050, Orthodox Jews could comprise 20% of U.S. Jewry, contrasting with broader demographic reductions linked to assimilation.

Meanwhile, in Israel, Haredi communities are booming, poised to eclipse Arab populations by mid-century. By 2050, Orthodox children will make up a significant portion of Israeli students, reshaping educational landscapes.

Della Pergola’s family’s harrowing escape, and subsequent prosperity, exemplifies resilience. As global Jewish communities navigate demographic shifts, the Jewish spirit continues its enduring journey.