The Mossad Chief's Prewar Plan to "Hasten the Fall of Iran's Regime"

Day 24 of Operation "Lion's Roar," but one of the core assumptions at the campaign's outset—a popular uprising leading to the Iranian regime's internal collapse—has yet to materialize. According to a report published today (Monday) in the New York Times, even before the fighting began, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was presented with a strategic plan intended "to hasten the fall of the Iranian regime."

The plan was drafted by Mossad Director Dedi Barnea, and it maintained that Iran's opposition could be set in motion within days of the campaign's outbreak.

According to the report, the plan stated that it would be possible "to spur the Iranian opposition to act" quickly, thereby igniting a wave of unrest and leading to a chain of events that would even include a "rebellion"—a process that, according to assessments, could have brought about the collapse of the regime in Tehran. It was also reported that Barnea presented the idea to senior officials in the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump during a visit to Washington in mid-January, and that Netanyahu adopted the plan.

The New York Times noted that despite reservations expressed by American officials and senior figures in other Israeli intelligence agencies, Trump and other officials chose to adopt an optimistic approach. They assessed that eliminating senior Iranian figures in the opening stages of the campaign, alongside intelligence operations intended to encourage regime change, would lead to a rapid popular uprising that would end the fighting within a short time.

According to updated intelligence assessments from the United States and Israel, the Iranian regime has indeed been weakened by the blows it has suffered, but it still manages to maintain stability. Among other factors, officials point to "the widespread fear of Iran's army and police forces" as a key reason that has prevented the outbreak of an internal revolt.