Israel Election Exit Polls: Likud Leads, but Neither Bloc Secures Majority

Following an election day marked by exceptionally high voter turnout, polling stations across Israel closed at 10 p.m. on Tuesday, and television networks released their exit polls for the 26th Knesset elections. Preliminary figures indicate that Likud remains the largest party, but neither political bloc has secured the 61 seats needed for a parliamentary majority.

Channel 12 and 13 Exit Polls Show No Clear Majority 

According to the Channel 12 News exit poll, the left-wing bloc is projected to win 52 seats, compared to 50 for the right-wing bloc. The Arab parties are expected to secure a combined 18 seats, with 11 going to the Joint List and seven to Ra’am.

In the breakdown by party, Likud, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, is projected to win 24 seats, while Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar! party follows closely with 22. The Beyachad party is expected to secure 12 seats, while the Democrats and Yisrael Beytenu are each projected to win nine. United Torah Judaism is forecast to receive seven seats, while Shas and Religious Zionism–Zehut are each expected to win six.

The Channel 13 News exit poll presents a similar picture, projecting 53 seats for the left-wing bloc, 50 for the right-wing bloc and 17 for the Arab parties.

Likud leads with 25 seats, followed by Yashar! with 23 and Beyachad with 14. The Joint List is projected to win 10 seats, while the Democrats are expected to secure nine. Yisrael Beytenu, Ra’am and United Torah Judaism are each forecast to receive seven seats, while Shas and Religious Zionism–Zehut are projected to win six apiece.

According to both exit polls, several parties have failed to cross the electoral threshold, including Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael party, the Reservists–Economic Party led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha, and the Haredi Public Party.

Kan 11 and i24NEWS Polls Confirm a Divided Knesset 

The Kan 11 exit poll also places Likud, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, in first place with 25 seats, followed by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar! party with 21. The Yachad party is projected to win 14 seats, while the Joint List is expected to secure 10 and Ra’am seven, bringing the combined representation of the Arab parties to 17 Knesset seats.

The poll also projects 10 seats for the Democrats, eight for Yisrael Beytenu and seven for Otzma Yehudit. Shas, United Torah Judaism and Religious Zionism are each expected to receive six seats.

According to the i24NEWS exit poll, Likud is projected to emerge as the largest party with 27 seats. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar! party ranks second with 20 seats, followed by Beyachad with 15.

The Joint List and the Democrats are each projected to secure nine seats, while Shas is expected to win eight. United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit and Ra’am are each forecast to receive seven seats, followed by Religious Zionism with six and Yisrael Beytenu with five.

Two additional parties are projected to remain outside the Knesset: the Reservists–Economic Party, led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha, and Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael party, both of which failed to cross the electoral threshold.

In terms of political blocs, the i24NEWS exit poll gives the right-wing bloc 55 seats, compared to 49 for the left-wing bloc and 16 for the Arab parties. These figures indicate that neither major bloc has secured the 61-seat majority required to form a government independently.

The official election results are expected to be published on November 4, after which President Isaac Herzog will have until November 11 to assign a candidate the task of forming the next government. That responsibility will not necessarily go to the leader of the largest party.