Will Lebanon’s Pressure Work? UN Faces High-Stakes Decision on UNIFIL’s Future

The UN Security Council will discuss tomorrow (Friday) the future of the UNIFIL force in southern Lebanon. The Lebanese government is pushing to extend the mandate, which expires at the end of the current year, and warns that there is no alternative plan.

A senior Lebanese official told "Arab News" that Beirut is waiting for guarantees from the United States of progress in negotiations with Israel, without which it will not enter direct negotiations under American sponsorship. The Beirut official noted that no "Plan B" has yet been formulated for a multinational presence in the country to replace UNIFIL. According to him, countries will not send forces without a framework, leaving the Lebanese army in direct friction with the IDF.

As previously reported, the UN decided about a year ago to end UNIFIL’s operations on December 31, 2026. In Lebanon, officials expressed concern over the approaching withdrawal of the forces, warning that "at present, there is no cohesive alternative plan on the ground or a ready replacement force that can maintain stability and ensure the implementation of the ceasefire." Lebanese sources noted that "the departure of UN forces without an effective alternative mechanism could lead to a dangerous security vacuum in the south of the country, especially amid international and Israeli pressure."

Meanwhile, UN Secretary-General António Guterres recently presented an initial framework for establishing a new international force tasked with monitoring the ceasefire and replacing UNIFIL, but its implementation and composition remain under dispute and involved in complex political discussions. Among the proposals under consideration is the establishment of a military force made up of soldiers from the armies of Britain, Switzerland, Italy, and another country. The countries have expressed interest in joining the force.