During the Cease-Fire, Iran Quietly Prepared for Its Next Conflict With the U.S.

Even as the cease-fire between the United States and Iran held, Tehran was not content with the temporary calm. According to a report published in the New York Times, senior Revolutionary Guard officials used the pause to prepare for the possibility that fighting would resume and to develop a plan to expand the regional conflict if Washington attacked again.

Two senior Revolutionary Guard officials told the newspaper that, during the cease-fire, Iranian generals held a series of secret discussions with commanders of pro-Iranian militias across the Middle East. The purpose of the talks was to prepare a broad, coordinated response that would make the United States pay a heavier price in the event of renewed escalation.

According to the report, senior commanders in the Quds Force held conference calls with leaders of Hezbollah, the Houthis, and pro-Iranian Shiite militias in Iraq. At the same time, Quds Force commanders and their advisers were also operating on the ground alongside those militias. The two officials said Tehran was trying to fill the vacuum within Hezbollah following the severe blow the organization suffered in its war with Israel, while also increasing its activity from the bases of Shiite militias in Iraq.

One of the senior advisers to Iranian chief negotiator Mehdi Mohammadi said that “the rules of the conflict are changing and being rewritten.” He also wrote that new fronts were opening simultaneously across the region, and argued that while the forces operate independently, they are coordinated with one another, and that “a new axis of resistance” is being built through new actors.

According to the report, the strategy has been visible on the ground in recent weeks. A series of attacks were carried out against various targets in the Middle East, including a major oil facility in Saudi Arabia, gas tankers that caught fire at a port in Egypt near the Suez Canal, and missile launches toward a base where American soldiers are stationed in Jordan. According to the report, the goal of these moves was to undermine regional stability, harm U.S. allies, and increase pressure on Washington.

At the same time, the attacks were reportedly planned to avoid a direct confrontation with American or Israeli forces. Officials and analysts quoted in the article assessed that, beyond the military dimension, Iran is also using the militias as a tool for economic pressure. According to these assessments, the aim is to disrupt oil exports from the Middle East, raise fuel prices in the United States, and burden the economies of Washington’s Arab allies. Iran believes its neighbors are more economically vulnerable and can therefore be pressured by disrupting maritime traffic in the region.

The Houthis, who according to the report are considered relatively independent among Iran’s proxy organizations, announced a maritime blockade against Saudi shipping about a week and a half ago and began launching missiles and drones to enforce it. Shipping through the Suez Canal and the Mediterranean was later affected as well, after tankers in Egypt were attacked with drones.

According to Lebanese government officials and analysts quoted by the New York Times, Iran also moved at the same time to tighten its control over Hezbollah. As part of the effort, Revolutionary Guard commanders were placed as direct members of the organization’s leadership council, in an attempt to rebuild it after the damage it sustained. One analyst quoted in the article estimated that one unexpected result of the blow to Hezbollah’s leadership is that the Revolutionary Guard now has tighter control over the organization’s activities.

In Iraq as well, according to the report, Iran continues to rely on Shiite militias to maintain its influence, while the United States works to integrate some of those militias into the country’s official forces. Analysts quoted in the article believe that Tehran and its allies see an opportunity to act during the current period, based on the assessment that the United States and its allies in the region do not want a slide into a large-scale regional war.