October 7 Intelligence Failure: New Warning Signs Revealed Hours Before Hamas Attack

Israeli military censorship cleared for publication Wednesday evening two additional warning signs detected during the night preceding the October 7 Hamas attack, further highlighting the extent of the failures in Israel's intelligence assessments just hours before the surprise assault.

One of the most significant indications emerged when Israeli security officials learned that Mohammed Deif, commander of Hamas's military wing, had left his home, disappeared from surveillance, and entered an underground complex on his way to the organization's command center. Following the discovery, the Shin Bet's elite Tequila response team was dispatched to southern Israel, while an additional surveillance drone was redirected from the West Bank to the Gaza Strip. However, no strike was carried out because officials could not establish with complete certainty the identity of the individual who had entered the underground facility.

Israeli intelligence also detected unusual movements, inspections, and activity involving Hamas's anti-tank missile units throughout the Gaza Strip. Preparations were observed at rocket-launching sites, including the installation and readiness of launchers and launch pits. An IDF drone even captured real-time footage of a Hamas operative removing a tarpaulin from a fixed rocket launcher in central Gaza, while other operatives were observed preparing additional launch positions.

These developments added to warning signs previously made public, most notably the activation of dozens of Israeli SIM cards inside the Gaza Strip. Despite the accumulation of troubling intelligence, Israeli security officials misinterpreted the findings, assessing them as indications of a Hamas military exercise, preparations for a limited confrontation, or routine operational activity.

During a security assessment held at the IDF Southern Command shortly before 3:00 a.m., then-Southern Command chief Maj. Gen. Yaron Finkelman reportedly concluded that Hamas's elite Nukhba forces were operating normally. “The Nukhba are carrying on as usual. This is still not a move toward war,” Finkelman stated.